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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- 24h volume
- $429,404
- Total volume
- $76,713,851
- End date
- 1/1/2027
Yes 17.5¢
No 82.5¢
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Weekly probability · dots mark big trades
Yes
No
Latest 100 trades ≥ $10K
Buy / sell by outcome
| Markets | Buy | Sell |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | $55,961 | $84,287 |
| No | $851,325 | $1,546,632 |
Recent big trades
- 0x3dca…3c13Sell · No$13,10683.0¢
- 0xc4d1…8ce8Sell · No$166,95584.0¢
- 0x8c80…02c3Sell · Yes$16,45216.0¢
- 0x9592…a7b8Sell · Yes$22,10017.0¢
- 0xe1fb…dfc7Buy · No$11,09483.0¢
- 0x7c3d…5c6bBuy · No$16,60083.0¢
- 0x7c3d…5c6bBuy · No$26,89181.9¢
- 0x7c3d…5c6bSell · No$36,59981.2¢
- 0xad96…d498Buy · No$46,15682.0¢
- 0xad96…d498Buy · No$28,66381.0¢
- 0x993f…3ee3Buy · No$19,96782.0¢
- 0x7f9e…3a0eSell · No$24,30081.0¢
- 0xeb49…693eBuy · No$35,00081.9¢
- 0x7f9e…3a0eSell · No$14,28880.0¢
- 0x8735…db43Sell · No$12,16781.1¢
- 0x7f9e…3a0eSell · No$24,87682.9¢
- 0x712f…9fe6Sell · No$16,80084.0¢
- 0x2b9d…adc0Buy · No$10,20085.0¢
- 0x894d…04e2Buy · No$34,76784.0¢
- 0xff1e…5e2dSell · No$20,00583.0¢
Participating traders
0x3dca…3c130xc4d1…8ce80x8c80…02c30x9592…a7b80xe1fb…dfc70x7c3d…5c6b0xad96…d4980x993f…3ee30x7f9e…3a0e0xeb49…693e0x8735…db430x712f…9fe60x2b9d…adc00x894d…04e20xff1e…5e2d0x696d…f89d0xf559…f4620xe52c…69240xecb1…5da30xa9f3…4bce0xe145…519a0xe234…304a0xe738…df650x162f…798d0x6978…08d80x05f6…25a10x1359…092e0x93fb…3e4a0xd52b…5c720x88c4…129a0xd5cc…dea40x7447…a16d0x9e72…99c40x3c91…9af70xbacd…ab350x700a…a2390x35bb…009b0x56e7…7c0b0xb665…bf8f0x0224…292a0x9c26…74bc0xf6ea…0a000x0042…321e