Overview
Prices refresh frequently; on-chain metrics sync daily.
BTC / USD
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Network hashrate
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ahr999
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Key touch probabilities
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Cycle pendulum · Composite score (0 capitulation → 100 euphoria)
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Valuation …Onchain behavior …Sentiment …
How it works
Each indicator maps to 0–100 using the points below, with linear interpolation and endpoint clamping. Valuation includes MVRV, MVRV-Z, the 200-week average multiple, ahr999 and Puell. Behavior uses SOPR; sentiment uses Fear & Greed. Average within each dimension, then equally across available dimensions. Scoring requires valuation plus at least one other dimension. Stale and missing data are excluded.
| Indicator | Value → score |
|---|---|
| MVRV | 0.8 → 0 / 1 → 20 / 1.5 → 40 / 2.4 → 60 / 3 → 80 / 3.7 → 100 |
| MVRV-Z | -0.5 → 0 / 0 → 20 / 1 → 40 / 3 → 60 / 5 → 80 / 7 → 100 |
| 200-week average multiple | 0.8 → 0 / 1 → 20 / 1.5 → 40 / 2.5 → 60 / 3.5 → 80 / 5 → 100 |
| ahr999 | 0.3 → 0 / 0.45 → 20 / 1.2 → 50 / 2.5 → 70 / 4 → 90 / 5 → 100 |
| Puell | 0.4 → 0 / 0.6 → 20 / 1 → 40 / 1.5 → 60 / 2.5 → 80 / 4 → 100 |
| SOPR | 0.95 → 0 / 0.98 → 20 / 1 → 40 / 1.02 → 60 / 1.05 → 80 / 1.1 → 100 |
| Fear & Greed | 0 → 0 / 100 → 100 |
0–<20: historical bottom; 20–<40: lower; 40–<60: middle; 60–<80: upper; 80–100: historical top.
This is a simple overview, without backtesting validation, and does not represent future trends.
Fear & Greed
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Historical sentiment scale from 0 to 100: lower values indicate fear, higher values indicate greed.
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Cycle
On-chain metrics describe holder costs and profits.
MVRV
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MVRV-Z
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SOPR
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Puell
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Next halving
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Valuation
Long-term anchors show relative position, not trading signals.
200-week moving average
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Spot price / 200-week moving average =
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Balanced price
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Spot price / Balanced price =
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Annual touch probabilities
Prediction market pricing on whether BTC touches a level during 2026, rather than a year-end price forecast.
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Market rules
Polymarket uses the high or low of Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, from market creation until December 31 at 23:59 ET.
Kalshi uses the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index from market opening. Original rules from the API follow:
Price sources and observation starts differ, so probabilities at the same level are not fully comparable.
Probabilities come from prediction market prices, rather than forecasts by this site.
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For reference only. This is not investment advice.