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Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Trade on Polymarket ↗
Yes
70.5%
No
29.5%

Weekly probability · dots mark big trades

Yes

61.3%68.5%75.7%Buy $20K · 70.9¢Buy $30K · 73.5¢Sell $48.29K · 74.0¢Buy $11.34K · 68.0¢10/27/202611/3/2026

No

24.3%31.5%38.7%10/27/202611/3/2026
24h volume
$374.32K
Total volume
$2.17M
End date
11/4/2026
Yes 70.5¢
No 29.5¢
Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Latest 100 trades ≥ $10K

Buy / sell by outcome

MarketsBuySell
Yes$127.65K$88.01K
No$17.38K$0

Recent big trades

  • 0xc36c…b39dBuy · Yes$20KUnusual70.9¢
  • 0x8bd3…f69aBuy · Yes$30KUnusual73.5¢
  • 0xe899…0899Sell · Yes$48.29KUnusual74.0¢
  • 0x9aeb…2729Buy · Yes$11.34K68.0¢
  • 0x7bc1…8db4Sell · Yes$25.69KUnusual64.0¢
  • 0xd039…2532Buy · No$17.38K27.9¢
  • 0xe899…0899Buy · Yes$19.68KUnusual71.7¢
  • 0x1fee…ed5eSell · Yes$14.04K71.0¢
  • 0x7bc1…8db4Buy · Yes$34.27KUnusual60.0¢
  • 0x000d…758eBuy · Yes$12.36K68.8¢

Participating traders