Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
Live probability · Updated
- Yes
- 4.5% ▼ 18.0% 24h
- No
- 95.5% ▲ 18.0% 24h
24h volume$169.6K
Probability
- Yes4.5%
- No95.5%
Dots mark big trades
- 24h volume
- $169.6K
- Total volume
- $1.57M
- End date
- 1/1/2027
Yes 4.5¢
No 95.5¢
Latest 100 trades ≥ $10K
Buy / sell by outcome
| Markets | Buy | Sell |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | $0 | $10.21K |
| No | $221.21K | $29.41K |
Participating traders
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.