PolyScott

Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Live probability · Updated

Yes
72.5%
▲ 4.0% 24h
No
27.5%
▼ 2.0% 24h

24h volume$165.94K

Probability

  • Yes72.5%
  • No27.5%
Dots mark big trades
15.5%32.75%50%67.25%84.5%Yes · Buy $20K · 71.6¢Yes · Buy $24.93K · 68.2¢Yes · Buy $20K · 67.5¢Yes · Buy $14.37K · 71.1¢10/29/202611/5/2026
$20K
BuyYes
72¢
Richidd
Just now27.9K
Unusual
$24.93K
BuyYes
68¢
Richidd
Just now36.5K
Unusual
$20K
BuyYes
68¢
Richidd
Just now29.6K
Unusual
$14.37K
BuyYes
71¢
Anymix
Just now20.2K
Unusual
$11.23K
SellYes
62¢
seal7
Just now18K
Unusual
$11.4K
BuyNo
38¢
ArmageddonRewardsBilly
Just now30K
Unusual
$34.25K
SellYes
62¢
ArmageddonRewardsBilly
Just now55.2K
Unusual

Latest 100 trades ≥ $10K

Buy / sell by outcome

MarketsBuySell
Yes$79.3K$45.48K
No$11.4K$0

Participating traders

Review this market
Resolution rules

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).