Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Live probability · Updated
- Yes
- 38.8% ▲ 7.4% 24h
- No
- 61.2% ▼ 7.4% 24h
24h volume$340K
Probability
- Yes38.8%
- No61.2%
Dots mark big trades
- 24h volume
- $340K
- Total volume
- $16.81M
- End date
- 11/8/2028
Yes 38.8¢
No 61.3¢
Latest 100 trades ≥ $10K
Buy / sell by outcome
| Markets | Buy | Sell |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | $464.77K | $261.62K |
| No | $103.2K | $121.22K |
Participating traders
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.